##
Decision wood
- Counting ... on one's fingers

*We have three (binary) experts (trees) with a (probability) P(guess)=0.9.*

H1. Hypothesis: The success of the experts is statistically independent.

Voting and majority: P(guess) =
...
= 0.972

*We have three experts with a (probability)*

P1(guess)=0.9,
P2(guess)=0.8,
P3(guess)=0.7.

H1.

Voting and majority: P(guess) =
...
= 0.902

*We have two experts with a (probability)*

P1(guess)=0.9,
P2(guess)=0.8

and a binary game

Payoff(guess)=+1,
Payoff(error)=-10,

If we play always with the first expert: Expected_Payoff =
...
= -0.1

H1.

If we play only when both experts agree: Expected_Payoff =
...
= +0.52

This work is derived from
ocre
project.
*Updated by *
*Luis José Cearra Zabala*

Wed Nov 14 16:39:24 CET 2001