Decision wood - Counting ... on one's fingers


We have three (binary) experts (trees) with a (probability) P(guess)=0.9.

H1. Hypothesis: The success of the experts is statistically independent.

Voting and majority: P(guess) = ... = 0.972

We have three experts with a (probability)
P1(guess)=0.9, P2(guess)=0.8, P3(guess)=0.7.

H1.

Voting and majority: P(guess) = ... = 0.902


We have two experts with a (probability)
P1(guess)=0.9, P2(guess)=0.8
and a binary game
Payoff(guess)=+1, Payoff(error)=-10,

If we play always with the first expert: Expected_Payoff = ... = -0.1

H1.

If we play only when both experts agree: Expected_Payoff = ... = +0.52


This work is derived from ocre project.

Updated by Luis Josť Cearra Zabala
Wed Nov 14 16:39:24 CET 2001