Decision wood - Counting ... on one's fingers, num.


Expected_Payoff = 0.9 * (+1) + 0.1 * (-10) = 0.9 - 1.0 = -0.1
H1. Hypothesis: The success of the experts is statistically independent.

P(1_guess and 2_guess) = 0.9*0.8 = 0.72
P(1_guess and 2_miss) = 0.9*0.2 = 0.18
P(1_miss and 2_guess) = 0.1*0.8 = 0.08
P(1_miss and 2_miss) = 0.1*0.2 = 0.02

both experts agree = (1_guess and 2_guess) or (1_miss and 2_miss)

Expected_Payoff = 0.72 * (+1) + 0.02 * (-10) = 0.72 - 0.20 = 0.52

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Updated by Luis Josť Cearra Zabala
Wed Nov 14 16:39:06 CET 2001