Decision wood - Counting ... on one's fingers, num.


H1. Hypothesis: The success of the experts is statistically independent.

P(1_guess and 2_guess and 3_guess) = 0.9*0.9*0.9 = 0.729

P(1_guess and 2_guess and 3_miss) = 0.9*0.9*0.1 = 0.081
P(1_guess and 2_miss and 3_guess) = 0.9*0.1*0.9 = 0.081
P(1_miss and 2_guess and 3_guess) = 0.1*0.9*0.9 = 0.081

P(majority_guess) = 0.729 + 3*0.081 = 0.972

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Updated by Luis Josť Cearra Zabala
Wed Nov 14 16:39:06 CET 2001